Economic (Business) Cycles


Published 2000, Update 11-August-2014


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Texts in black on white background are my texts, include
My Fragments (MF#).
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Cycles Quotes

T. S. Eliot (1934) "Collected Poems 1909 - 1962, Opening Stanza from Choruses from 'The Rock'" p. 147.

"The Eagle soars in the summit of Heaven,
The Hunter with his dogs pursues his circuit.

O perpetual revolution of configured stars,

O perpetual recurrence of determined seasons,

O world of spring and autumn, birth and dying!

The endless cycle of idea and action,
Endless invention, endless experiment,
Brings knowledge of motion, but not of stillness;
Knowledge of speech, but not of silence;
Knowledge of words, and ignorance of the Word.
All our knowledge brings us nearer to our ignorance,
All our ignorance brings us nearer to death,
But nearness to death no nearer to GOD.
Where is the Life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?
The cycles of Heaven in twenty centuries
Bring us farther from GOD and nearer to the Dust.

Irving Fisher (1928) "The Money Illusion", Martino Publishing. p. 196.

"We have seen that the so-called business cycle is largely a "dance of the dollar" and that a more stable dollar will flatten out this cycle and go far to remedy the crises, depressions  and unemployment from which we have suffered so grievously."

Willford I. King (1938) "The Causes of Economic Fluctuations" The Ronald Press, p. 244.

"If the oscillations in business are dominated by forces following some mathematical formula, whether that formula be one representing a composite of sine curves or otherwise, the pattern of business must to a considerable extent be repetitive in nature and hence predictable. For any curve, or combination of curves, represented by mathematical formulae, can be reproduced indefinitely into the future."

Erwin Schrödinger (1944) "What Is Life ?" Cambridge, p. 77.

"The unfolding of events in the life cycle of an organism exhibits an admirable regularity and orderliness, unrivalled by anything we meet with in inanimate matter."






N  My Fragments - From My Personal Point of View, The Complete list see Tamari page:


MF4: Evolution of form is birth and death, construction and destruction, trail and error,
            ..... on forever. But accompanied by a self-correcting mechanism/feedback.    
added 01 January 2003.

MF7: Globalization + Computerization = Tzunamization.   added 9 October 2008.








  economic cycles A good book to start with: Hicks J. R. (1950) "A Contribution to the Theory of the TRADE CYCLE", Oxford.



small stoper




The average cycle of growth, among countries and years is 5.5 years, the average cycle of sunspots is 11 years.



The economic cycles of Australia 1961-2008.

Australia Cycles


The economic cycles of Canada 1961-2008.

Canada Cycles


The economic cycles of Colombia 1961-2008.

Colombia Cycles


The economic cycles of Denmark 1961-2008.

Denmark Cycles


The economic cycles of India 1961-2008.

India Cycles


The economic cycles of Indonesia 1961-2008.

Indionesia Cycles


The economic cycles of Iran 1961-2008.

Iran Cycles


The economic cycles of Israel 1961-2008.

Israel Cycles


The economic cycles of Japan 1961-2008.

Japan Cycles


The economic cycles of Mexico 1961-2008.

Mexico Cycles


The economic cycles of Morocco 1961-2008.

Morocco Cycles


The economic cycles of Norway 1961-2008.

Norway Cycles


The economic cycles of Pakistan 1961-2008.

Pakistan Cycles


The economic cycles of Peru 1961-2008.

Peru Cycles


The economic cycles of Philippines 1961-2008.

Philiippines Cycles


The economic cycles of Singapore 1961-2008.

Singapore Cycles


The economic cycles of South Africa 1961-2008.

South Africa Cycles


The economic cycles of South Korea 1961-2008.

South Korea Cycles


The economic cycles of Sweden 1961-2008.

Sweden Cycles


The economic cycles of Switzerland 1961-2008.

Switzerland Cycles


The economic cycles of Turkey 1961-2008.

Turkey Cycles


The economic cycles of United Kingdom 1961-2008.

United Kingdom Cycles


The economic cycles of United States 1961-2008.

United States Cycles


The economic cycles of Venezuela 1961-2008.

Venezuela Cycles









Note 1, 15 - August - 2010   A Note On "Harmony or Adjusted Countries"

First harmony - USA as a leader (locomotive) with United kingdom, Canada and South-Africa.

USA group


Second harmony - Japan as a leader (locomotive) with Denmark, Philippines, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland.

JAPAN group.

We can call this harmony/adjusted countries: Commerce/Economic Group. Between any two members of the group there is the operation/relation X (X for exchange relations).


USA commerce/economic group                    Japan commerce/economic group

USA group                    Japan Group       


Source of data: Processed by the author from the data of  "International Financial Statistics, YEARBOOK 2009" (IFSY), IMF.

No adjustment or filters were used to process the data, just the rates of change of the data themselves.







American Economic Association Series (1950) "Readings in Business Cycle Theory".

Burns A. F. and Mitchell W. C. (1946) "Measuring Business Cycles", New York, National Bureau of Economic research.

Dewey E. R. and Dakin E. F. (1947) "Cycles: The Science Of Prediction", Henry Holt and Company, NY.

Dua P. (Editor) (2004) "Business Cycles and Economic Growth", Oxford UP.

Hicks J. R. (1950) "A Contribution to the Theory of the TRADE CYCLE", Oxford.

Hansen A. (1951) "Business Cycles and National Income", Norton, NY.

Hurst J. M. (1974) "Cyclic Analysis", Traders Press.

Pierre-Yves H. (1981) "Macrodynamics Fluctuations and Growth", Routledge & Kegan Poul.

Puu T. (1991) "Nonlinear Economic Dynamics", 2ed., Springer-Verlag.

Puu T. and Sushko I. (Editors) (2006) "Business Cycle Dynamics", Springer.

Rosser J. B. (1991) "From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economics Discontinuities", Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Schumpeter A. J. (1939) "Business Cycles", McGraw-Hill, NY.

Tvede L. (2006, 3ed.) "Business Cycles", John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.