Economic (Business) Cycles

 

Published in 2000, updated on October 28, 2014. 

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Cycle Quotes

T. S. Eliot (1934). "Collected Poems 1909-1962,"opening stanza from "Choruses from 'The Rock,'" p. 147.

"The Eagle soars in the summit of Heaven,
The Hunter with his dogs pursues his circuit.

O perpetual revolution of configured stars,

O perpetual recurrence of determined seasons,

O world of spring and autumn, birth and dying!

The endless cycle of idea and action,
Endless invention, endless experiment,
Brings knowledge of motion, but not of stillness;
Knowledge of speech, but not of silence;
Knowledge of words, and ignorance of the Word.
All our knowledge brings us nearer to our ignorance,
All our ignorance brings us nearer to death,
But nearness to death no nearer to GOD.
Where is the Life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?
The cycles of Heaven in twenty centuries
Bring us farther from GOD and nearer to the Dust.
"

Irving Fisher (1928). "The Money Illusion." Martino Publishing, p. 196.

"We have seen that the so-called business cycle is largely a "dance of the dollar" and that a more stable dollar will flatten out this cycle and go far to remedy the crises, depressions and unemployment from which we have suffered so grievously."

Willford, I. King (1938). "The Causes of Economic Fluctuations." The Ronald Press, p. 244.

"If the oscillations in business are dominated by forces following some mathematical formula, whether that formula be one representing a composite of sine curves or otherwise, the pattern of business must to a considerable extent be repetitive in nature and hence predictable. For any curve, or combination of curves, represented by mathematical formulae, can be reproduced indefinitely into the future."

Erwin Schrödinger (1944). "What Is Life?" Cambridge, p. 77.

"The unfolding of events in the life cycle of an organism exhibits an admirable regularity and orderliness, unrivalled by anything we meet with in inanimate matter."

 

 

stoper

 

 

N My Fragments - From My Personal Point of View

For the complete list, please see Tamari.

 

MF4:  Evolution of form is birth and death, construction and destruction, trial and error ...
             forever, but accompanied by a self-correcting mechanism/feedback.  
Added 1 January 2003.

MF7: Globalization + Computerization = Tsunamization.   Added 9 October 2008.

 

 

stoper

 

 

Theory

...???...

  economic cycles A good book to start with: Hicks, J.R. (1950). "A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle." Oxford.

 

As long as the money (M1) relative to output (GDP) is at an optimum quantity, there are almost no economic cycles. When money starts to be out of the optimum, economic cycles start to build up.

 

small stoper

 

Empiric

A nation's average growth cycle is 5.5 years; the average cycle of sunspots is 11 years.

 

Countries:

The economic cycles of Australia 1961-2008.

Australia Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Canada 1961-2008.

Canada Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Colombia 1961-2008.

Colombia Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Denmark 1961-2008.

Denmark Cycles

 

The economic cycles of India 1961-2008.

India Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Indonesia 1961-2008.

Indionesia Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Iran 1961-2008.

Iran Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Israel 1961-2008.

Israel Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Japan 1961-2008.

Japan Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Mexico 1961-2008.

Mexico Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Morocco 1961-2008.

Morocco Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Norway 1961-2008.

Norway Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Pakistan 1961-2008.

Pakistan Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Peru 1961-2008.

Peru Cycles

 

The economic cycles of the Philippines 1961-2008.

Philiippines Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Singapore 1961-2008.

Singapore Cycles

 

The economic cycles of South Africa 1961-2008.

South Africa Cycles

 

The economic cycles of South Korea 1961-2008.

South Korea Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Sweden 1961-2008.

Sweden Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Switzerland 1961-2008.

Switzerland Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Turkey 1961-2008.

Turkey Cycles

 

The economic cycles of the United Kingdom 1961-2008.

United Kingdom Cycles

 

The economic cycles of the United States 1961-2008.

United States Cycles

 

The economic cycles of Venezuela 1961-2008.

Venezuela Cycles

 

 

 

stoper

 

 

 

 

Note 1, 15 August 2010   Note on "harmonies" or "adjusted countries"

First harmony - The group consists of the USA (the locomotive leader), the United kingdom, Canada and South-Africa.

USA group

 

Second harmony - The group consists of Japan (the locomotive leader), Denmark, the Philippines, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland.

JAPAN group.

We can call these harmonies/adjusted countries: 'Economic/Commerce Groups'. The operation/relation X (X for exchange relations) exists between any two members of the group.

 

USA commerce/economic group                    Japan commerce/economic group

USA group                    Japan Group       

 

Source of data: Processed by the author from data in the "International Financial Statistics, Yearbook 2009" (IFSY), IMF.

No adjustment or filters were used to process the data, just the rates of change of the data themselves.

 

 

stoper

 

 

Books:

American Economic Association Series (1950). "Readings in Business Cycle Theory."

Burns, A.F. and Mitchell, W.C. (1946). "Measuring Business Cycles." New York, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Dewey, E.R. and Dakin, E.F. (1947). "Cycles: The Science of Prediction." Henry Holt and Company, NY.

Dua, P. (Ed.) (2004). "Business Cycles and Economic Growth." Oxford UP.

Hicks, J.R. (1950). "A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle." Oxford.

Hansen, A. (1951). "Business Cycles and National Income." Norton, NY.

Hurst, J.M. (1974)."Cyclic Analysis." Traders Press.

Pierre-Yves, H. (1981). "Macrodynamics Fluctuations and Growth." Routledge & Kegan Paul.

Puu, T. (1991). "Nonlinear Economic Dynamics." 2nd ed., Springer-Verlag.

Puu, T. and Sushko, I. (Eds.) (2006). "Business Cycle Dynamics." Springer.

Rosser, J.B. (1991). "From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economics Discontinuities." Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Schumpeter, A.J. (1939). "Business Cycles." McGraw-Hill, NY.

Tvede, L. (2006). "Business Cycles." 3rd ed. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

 

Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/U.S._Economic_Cycles

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

http://www.colorado.edu/Economics/courses/econ2020/section7/section7-main.html

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